The unimaginable has suddenly become very possible. Some political experts now actually predict that Republicans may regain control of the United States Senate in the 2010 election. Just fourteen months ago, such an outcome seemed impossible. After all, heading into the 2010 election cycle, Democrats held a commanding sixty (60) to forty (40) vote margin. Since the Vice President (Democrat Joe Biden) breaks any tie votes (i.e. 50/50), Republicans would have to capture eleven seats in order to gain majority “control” of the U.S. Senate.
Of course, there is the question of exactly what does “control” mean in the United States Senate. Most agree on one thing - “control” really does not mean total control of the United States Senate. Instead, there are only varying degrees of procedural advantage. In operation, no political party ever controls the Senate.
As Senate Democrats have learned the hard way, not even the mystical sixty vote threshold yields the ability to actually force legislation through the process, with votes being little more than administrative technicalities necessary for valid legislation. (Senator Zell Miller wrote an entire chapter in his book “A National Party No More” that describes in some detail the absurdities of the process.) Instead, every Senator has the ability to slow the process, and a group of Senators can slow, if not outright stall, even the most rudimentary tasks and legislation.
Yet, there is some order, albeit limited, to the madness of the U. S. Senate, and as a result, varying levels of voting control are in fact important. The first threshold is a majority. This requires fifty-one votes (either with or without the vote of the Vice President who is the titular President of the Senate) when the Senate is at full strength.
The majority gets to do a lot of very important things. The two most important are the appointment of Senators to Committees, including the selection of Committee Chairs, and setting the agenda for the Senate. Committee Chairs have enormous power including the power to set the Committee’s agenda. Controlling the agenda can mean everything.
Beyond the fifty-one vote threshold, there is the all-important sixty vote threshold. Sixty votes end the ability of any one or group of Senators to continuously debate (filibuster) any action by the Senate. It sounds easier than it is. Senate Democrats had sixty votes for almost a year. They actually accomplished little.
Against this backdrop, the 2010 election cycle started. Few gave the Republicans much chance to go from twenty votes down to one vote up. After all, the Senate is designed to change slowly. With six year terms, only one-third of the Senate is ever up for election in any one election cycle. And, in any given cycle, only a portion of the Senators in any one election cycle are from one political party, and of those, only a handful of Senators are typically vulnerable.
But, it does happen. In just the last two election cycles, there has been a fifteen vote swing in the Senate. Starting in the 2006 election cycle, Republicans held a fifty-five to forty-five vote margin (+10). By the end of the 2008 cycle (or four years), Democrats held a sixty vote to forty vote margin (-20). Republicans lost fifteen seats in just four years.
Now, in 2010, thirty-six states (including Georgia) will elect a U. S. Senator (the typical class of one third (33) plus three vacancies resulting from resignations). There are eleven (11) open seats from retirements. Eighteen Republicans and eighteen Democrats are at play.
To gain a majority, Republicans would have to defend all (100%) of their seats (including five open seats from retirements) and win sixty percent (60%) or eleven of the eighteen seats currently held by Democrats. Hence, the skepticism regarding the ability of Republicans to gain a majority.
But this is a weird election cycle. Already, Democrats lost an unexpected race in Massachusetts with the election of Republican Scott Brown. Then came the unexpected retirements of Democratic Senators Byron Dorgan from North Dakota and Chris Dodd from Connecticut. Incredibly, Republicans can now actually name the Senate seats necessary for a majority.
Many are well within reach - Delaware (Vice President Joe Biden’s vacated seat); Nevada (Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s seat); Illinois (President Barack Obama’s seat); Pennsylvania (party switcher Arlen Specter’s seat); Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln’s seat); and Colorado (Michael Bennet’s seat). But to gain a majority, Republicans would have to do more.
And so, on November 2, 2010, all eyes will inevitably turn to California (Barbara Boxer) and Wisconsin (Russ Feingold). If they fall, then it will indeed be a long night for Democrats and more change will come to Washington, D.C.
