Candidates are lining up to qualify for public office in the midterm elections this year. Everyone senses that something is happening among voters, but nobody knows for sure what it is. Of course, in politics, uncertainty means opportunity. And so, challengers have lined up as incumbents move on to bigger and better things. Hence, a new political landscape is emerging on the horizon. Yet, not everything political turns on the 2010 election returns. Indeed, Presidential politics swirls in the background as midterm campaigns take center stage. Of course, with an incumbent Democratic President, the 2012 nomination process will be a decidedly one party affair. But within that party, there will be plenty of drama and intrigue as Republican Presidential contenders step up for their chance to take on President Barack Obama.
The most prominent 2012 GOP Presidential contender has to be former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. By all accounts, he is building one of the most impressive campaign organizations in the country. In addition, he has tirelessly traveled around the country campaigning for state and local candidates. If organization and political IOUs are the measure, he will undoubtedly be a frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2012. In addition, his own personal wealth makes him a formidable candidate in its own right. So far, however, these advantages have not yet translated into frontrunner status among GOP voters and activists.
For a Romney Presidential bid, the healthcare debate has proven to be especially challenging. Political pundits openly query whether a Romney GOP nomination would effectively preclude the use of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi healthcare legislation as a major campaign issue in 2012. As governor of Massachusetts, then Governor Romney pushed the passage of comprehensive universal healthcare legislation. So far, no one has been able to articulate a simple and concise explanation of the differences between the two and that has been a problem. But, it is still early.
After Mitt Romney, there is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. A surprisingly strong candidate in 2008, Mike Huckabee has also been on a whirlwind tour of the country, promoting his books and hosting his popular Saturday evening FOX television show Huckabee. By all accounts, his support has grown deeper, but not wider. Those who liked or voted for him in 2008 like him even more. They watch his show, enjoy his commentary, and buy his books. If a candidate in 2012, he would again be strong. But, all indications are that Mike Huckabee is quite happy as an author, speaker and television host.
Then, there is former Alaska governor Sarah Palin - the 900 pound elephant in the middle of the room. No one seriously doubts her ability to be a dominant player among conservatives. In recent months, she has become the Tea Party star. She has also become a frequent FOX commentator. There are those who absolutely love her, and there are those who do not. There are very few in between.
The question really is whether Sarah Palin wants to run, not whether she can. All indications are that she does not. The toll of a national campaign on her young family is likely just too great. But then, Sarah Palin does have one advantage that others interested in the country’s top job do not - age. At age forty-six (46), she could wait and run in 2014 for the United States Senate seat in Alaska held by Democrat Mark Bejich; serve a term or two; and then run for President and still be younger than the GOP Presidential nominee in 2008 by a long shot.
There is also former Speaker Newt Gingrich. In 2008, he came awfully close to jumping in, albeit really late in the game. No one will actually ever know what a difference he might have made in the GOP nomination process in 2008 if he had run. It is unlikely that he will wait so long this time to make a decision one way or the other.
Four sitting Republican governors are also considered potentially strong candidates for a GOP Presidential bid in 2012 - Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, and Texas Governor Rick Perry. Individually, each has had a noticeably good year.
Governor Pawlenty has developed a national presence with the help of FOX News. Governor Daniels has emerged as a compelling voice on conservative fiscal responsibility in the wake of history-making federal deficits. Governor Barbour chairs the influential Republican Governors Association. And Governor Perry dominated his primary contest with United States Senator Kay Bailey Hutcheson.
The possibilities are endless; but all will be involved in one way or the other as the 2010 elections unfold.
