Can you spell run-off? Well, that is the watchword for the 2010 gubernatorial race in Georgia in both the Democratic and Republican Primaries. With fourteen candidates running for governor in Georgia (not including third parties and independents), votes will be split among a lot of different people. And that could spell run-off.
So how will it all work?
First, on July 20, 2010, seven Democratic candidates will square off in the Democratic Primary and seven Republican candidates will square off in the Republican Primary. In each primary, if no candidate reaches fifty percent, then the highest two vote getters will face each other in their respective primary’s run-off election on August 10, 2010. Then, the top vote getter in the Democratic Primary run-off and the top vote getter in the Republican Primary run-off will face each other just 84 days later in the General Election on November 2, 2010.
Interestingly, Georgia voters do not register by political party. Instead, on the date of the primary, any voter can vote in either primary (but only one primary) regardless of their actual party affiliation or voting history. So, Republicans can vote in the Democratic Primary and Democrats can vote in the Republican Primary, but no one can vote in both primaries. Once a vote is cast in the primary, then that voter can only vote in the run-off for the party’s primary in which they cast their vote. So, if a voter votes in the Democratic Primary, then the voter can only vote in the Democratic Primary run-off.
Other political parties (such as the Libertarian Party) and independents can qualify through different procedures. Should they meet the requisite requirements, then those names would also appear on the General Election ballot as well. If any candidate in the General Election receives 50% of the vote, then that candidate is the winner. If, however, no candidate receives fifty percent, then the top two vote getters, regardless of party, face off in the General Election run-off on November 30, 2010.
Seven Democrats qualified to run for governor in Georgia. Four of the candidates are experienced politicians that could generate some votes. The frontrunner by all accounts is former Governor Roy Barnes. Most concede that he will get one of the two run-off slots for the Democratic Primary run-off (although some think he could possibly eek out an outright win.) His likely run-off opponent will come from one of three people: Attorney General Thurbert Baker; House Minority Leader Dubose Porter; or, former Secretary of State David Poythress. The other three candidates are Randal Mangham (whose website offers an assortment of insurance products for sale); Carl Camon (the Mayor of Ray City, Georgia); and, Bill Bolton (a former Libertarian and prior candidate for various offices).
Seven Republicans also qualified to run for Governor in Georgia. Four of the candidates are political heavyweights with impressive constituencies and organizations. Four candidates vie for the two GOP run-off slots: Commissioner of Insurance John Oxendine; former U.S. Congressman Nathan Deal; former Secretary of State Karen Handel; and former Georgia Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson. The other GOP candidates who qualified are Otis Putnam (who lists his occupation as “WalMart”); State Senator Jeff Chapman (Glynn County, Georgia); and Ray McBerry. Already, there have been plenty of fireworks among these candidates and there will be more.
But, it is numbers that are the enemy of all of the primary candidates - just numbers. In the last competitive Democratic Primary for Governor in 2006 between then Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor, former Secretary of State Cathy Cox and two lesser known candidates, there were only 482,117 votes cast. If that happens this year, six of the seven candidates need only garner 241,059 or approximately 40,000 each statewide to trigger a run-off. Yet, as Mark Taylor proved, an outright win can be achieved. He won the Democratic Primary in 2006 with 51.7% of the vote.
In 2010, things could be a little tougher for Roy Barnes, however. As Georgia’s highest elected African American official, Attorney General Baker could be looking for votes from the 1,687,626 registered African American voters who comprise 40 percent of Georgia’s total voters and well over one-half of Georgia Democrats. That could be the difference.
The last time there was a competitive Republican Primary was 2002 between Cobb County Commission Chairman Byrne, then former State Senator Sonny Perdue, and State School Superintendent Linda Schrenko. In that primary, 511,463 votes were cast with Sonny Perdue winning without a runoff with 51% of the vote. So it can be done. But, with the candidates involved and the dynamics in play, the word for this year’s election cycle remains - runoff.
