While Republicans rip each other apart in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary, Georgia Democrats ponder what will happen in their primary on July 20, 2010. With seven candidates, Democratic partisans openly worry about the mathematics of a seven person primary with a projected 10-15% voter turnout.
(Republicans also have seven candidates in their primary. But Republicans know their future: a GOP gubernatorial runoff is an absolute certainty.)
For Georgia Democrats, two very different political futures could lay ahead - one with a clear nominee coming out of the Democratic Primary while two Republican heavyweights slug it out in a GOP Primary runoff; and the other with a Democratic runoff where anything can happen given the make-up of the Democratic primary voters. No matter what anyone says, either could happen at this point.
Recent polling suggests the first option is more likely. For example, Tom Crawford’s Georgia Report includes a poll which has former governor Roy Barnes at 63%. Candidly, by all accounts, Barnes continues to poll extremely well. Certainly, he has an impressive list of endorsements including prominent African-American leaders, a sizable political war chest that keeps getting bigger, and a dominant political machine from his years as governor.
Yet, Governor Barnes has been acting like anything other than a political frontrunner with big leads in the polls. Instead, he has been running television advertisements, attending campaign events, and calling in political IOUs like there is no tomorrow. Here is why.
First, Governor Barnes remembers well the 2002 election where he held a huge lead with lots of money and a dominant political machine. He lost. He will not make that mistake again.
Second, there is the tricky issue of voter turnout. So far, early voting suggests anything other than a fired up electorate in the primary. Some part of this scant early voting turnout comes from the topsy-turvy nature of politics this year. It seems that every day another shoe drops and there is no shortage of shoes. As a result, voting early could mean a vote cast that becomes a mistake by election day.
But, if the voter turnout stays low, then anything really can happen on Primary election day. One county with a hotly contested sheriff’s race, or one state senatorial district with a multitude of candidates could easily skew the entire Primary election results. One late surge, unexpected development, or sudden resonating message could be the difference.
Then, there is the “Alvin Greene” effect. So, what is the “Alvin Greene” effect? In South Carolina, a candidate with no money, no website, no staff, no yard signs, no bumper stickers, no mailings, no television, and no radio won the Democratic Senatorial primary over a well established Democratic candidate (a former state judge and Charleston legislator). The winner was Alvin Greene. Before his win, Alvin Greene truly was a complete unknown. As it turned out, he is a 32-year old unemployed veteran living with his father in rural Manning, South Carolina and facing felony obscenity charges. Yet, he won 58% of the vote in the South Carolina Democratic primary. He received 100,362 votes.
How did Alvin Greene win over a candidate backed by the Democratic leadership of South Carolina? Consider the explanation Democratic Representative Todd Rutherford of Columbia, South Carolina for his vote for Alvin Greene according to the Wall Street Journal (June 12-13, 2010):
“Mr. Rutherford, who is black, said several of his family members voted for Mr. Greene because they weren’t familiar with either candidate and they thought Mr. Greene had the more African-American name.”
If this is true, the ramifications in the Democratic Primary in Georgia are humongous. After all, one of Governor Barnes’s opponents in the Democratic primary is Attorney General Thurbert Baker. Unlike Alvin Greene (a political unknown), Attorney General Thurbert Baker is the highest elected Democrat in Georgia and is a prominent African-American leader.
In South Carolina, African-Americans comprise over one quarter of all registered voters. According to the Wall Street Journal, Democratic leaders believe that as many as 70% of the voters in the 2010 Democratic primary were African-American. The numbers in Georgia are more pronounced.
In Georgia, almost 40% of registered voters are African-American. Based on current voter turnout projections, African-Americans could account for as much as 80% of the Democratic primary in Georgia. If the Rutherford explanation of the Alvin Greene effect is applied with low voter turnout, Georgia could be in for a real surprise on Primary election night.
On the other hand, it could just mean another run-off. After all, to win without a runoff, former Governor Roy Barnes has to win virtually all (99%) of the non-African-American vote and 20-25% (one out of four) of the African-American vote. Strange things are happening this year.
